60 banks may lose their licenses in 2018
Five credit institutions are in the top-50.
Analysts of Expert RA provided a forecast of revocation of licenses from credit organizations in 2018. In their opinion, 60 banks, five of which are in the top 50, may lose their licenses, RBC reports.
Analysts believe that these are the banks that could not get their business models under the table.
By now, experts say, 25% of all organizations in the Russian Federation have not been able to adapt the process of improving their banking sector.
Earlier this year, head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that the main work of the regulator for the improvement of the banking sector was completed in 2017. Analysts are sure that nervousness in the banking sector will continue this year due to a decrease in confidence, as well as an increase in the state's share.
In the study "Forecast of the development of the banking sector in 2018: the crisis of the business model", analysts from Expert RA note several factors, including the impossibility of placing funds in income assets, the prospect of losing access to the main business and the lack of capital to cover loan losses.
Recall, Nabiullina was appointed the head of the Bank of Russia in 2013. She began the so-called process of improving the banking sector. Since then, the share of unprofitable banks with an inefficient business model has grown from 10 to 25%. This year, market experts expect an accelerated rate of license revocation.
Senior director of FitchRatings Alexander Danilov believes that small banks, which participation in the system are so small that their disappearance will not have an impact on the industry, will lose licenses.
As for top-50, there will be an insufficient level of capital to cover credit risks. Experts have not yet indicated which banks can lose licenses, but note that this will be affected by the deterioration of the business model: the risk of financial losses (51-70%) and the risk of non-return (71-100%).
The situation on international markets is worsening because of trade wars and protectionist policies. However, Dmitry Medvedev noted that the Government expects the expansion of the Russian economy until 2024.