Insight: Russia's new government will be replaced in two years
Anonymous Telegram channel Nezygar believes that its current make-up is one of the most fragile and vulnerable in recent times.
The new government composition, according to the analysts of the Nezygar Telegram channel, is "the first government completely composed of clan nominees, lobbyists, and personal appointees." Znak.com has analyzed its publications.
As Nezygar writes, the new government is created for a short-term perspective - 2 years. And the first phase of its renewal will be held this fall - immediately after the 2018 World Cup, the second one - to take place in 2020-2021. The last date is related to the elections to the State Duma in 2021, when a change of the government will be possible within the framework of the constitutional reform.
According to the channel, now the government represents various clans – of Rotenbergs, Chemezov, Kovalchuk, Medvedev - Sechin (separately and coalition), Sobyanin, siloviki (St. Petersburg veterans + Karelian group + "defense of the constitution"), Timchenko-Shoygu. At the same time, none of the appointees received a mandate to lead their team; no one has the task to strengthen the ministers.
Another feature, identified by Nezygar, is that Vladimir Putin's "successor" operation is canceled. The transfer of power will probably happen through reform with the strengthening of the State Council (which is likely to be headed by the current President). "The transition to the parliamentary system is being studied carefully," the Telegram channel writes, advising to closely monitor the two young figures - Andrey Turchak, the Secretary of the General Council of United Russia, and Governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov.
The "successor" project was abandoned. With 2020-2021, it is possible to implement a new project for the transfer of power, which should occur through the strengthening of the State Council, which is likely to be headed by Vladimir Putin. In addition, the transition to the parliamentary system is being studied carefully. It should be noted that former President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan tried to preserve his power in the same way, which, designed to strengthen the role of the parliament after the constitutional reform, wanted to remain in power, taking over the post of Prime Minister, which became more significant than the presidential one. As a result, this led to the resignation of Sargsyan. Opposition MP Nikol Pashinyan occupied the post of Prime Minister.
The challenges of the new government are austerity, collection and distribution of income, pension reform, social policy, youth policy and the idea to establish greater control over information policy, mainly the Internet.
For several days now, the minds of the public in St. Petersburg are occupied with one piece of news – Lieutenant-General Umnov, head of the Main Directorate of the MIA for St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, leaves his post and sets off for a promotion to Moscow. Sergey Umnov is allegedly designated for the position of deputy minister of the MIA Vladimir Kolokoltsev. However, on the sidelines of the ministry they expect not a promotion for the Petersburg general, but an honorable resignation with the consequent loss of political weight.